Tuesday, April 22, 2008

CW = Contrary Words?

One notes the conventional wisdom:
One thing seems quite evident prior to getting the vote totals: while Obama has a floor, McCain and Clinton have ceilings, and they've already hit them. ... check out Charlie Cook writing about Obama's chemisty: "This unusual combination created the equivalent in Democratic politics of nitroglycerin. It has already overpowered all but Clinton and is pushing its beneficiary closer and closer to the nomination, despite the inherent advantages that she began with."
But I note the delegate count is within a 150. Also noteworthy are: The high number of Republican Congressional retirements; The many highly qualified, serious, Democratic candidates running all over the country; The enormous number of new voters who register as Democrats; The flood of small donor funding for many of these candidates.
Nitroglycerin separates particles dramatically. When any candidate has the political equivalent of nitro, they blast ahead of expectations and their opponents, e.g.: Darcy Burner's Washington 08 fund raising.
I don't think a 1650/1508 delegate split is evidence of nitro, no matter how enthused the supporters of either candidate are.
That those eligible to vote in the Democratic primaries consistently divide so nearly for two candidates, while offering major support to Democratic candidates in Congressional races might be interpreted as a desire in the electorate to change the composition of the Executive and Congress (and therefore the Judicial) and an acceptance of either Democratic Presidential candidate, rather than an overwhelming preference for one candidate.
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